{"id":3450,"date":"2024-02-28T19:49:08","date_gmt":"2024-02-29T00:49:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.yvancliche.org\/?p=3450"},"modified":"2024-02-29T19:52:30","modified_gmt":"2024-03-01T00:52:30","slug":"sans-transition-une-nouvelle-histoire-de-lenergie","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.yvancliche.org\/?p=3450","title":{"rendered":"Sans transition.Une nouvelle histoire de l’\u00e9nergie"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

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Site web CGAI<\/a>, 28 f\u00e9vrier 2024<\/h5>\n\n\n\n

BOOK REVIEW<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00ab\u00a0Sans transition: Une nouvelle histoire de l\u2019\u00e9nergie<\/a>\u00ab\u00a0
by Jean-Baptiste Fressoz
Seuil, January 2024<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reviewed by Yvan Cliche<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2024 offered a highly controversial start to the energy debate in France. On the front page of the new book by science historian Jean-Baptiste Fressoz, the following announcement appears in capital letters: THE ENERGY TRANSITION WILL NOT HAPPEN.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unsurprisingly, in a country where debating is a national sport, the publication of this book ignited heated discussions and earned its author front-page coverage in mainstream media. The author was harshly criticized in many quarters for this banner on the book\u2019s cover.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Six renowned intellectuals published a collective letter in Le Monde<\/em><\/a> on January 22, 2024. They wrote: \u201cThis ecological declinism is not only largely unfounded, but also likely to undermine ambitions in the fight against climate change. Asserting that the transition is impossible is the best way to ensure that it never happens.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, what does Fressoz say in his book that shocks so many people?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He argues that the industrialization of the 19th and 20th centuries did not give rise to any energy transition. The history of energy is often presented as a transition, from wood to coal, then to oil, then to gas and, more recently, to renewable energies. In short, it is history as a series of phases, with one form of energy replacing another. Fressoz says this \u201ctransitionist scheme\u201d is wrong. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The \u201cnew\u201d does not make the \u201cold\u201d disappear, he argues. Fressoz draws on a wealth of data and his book includes almost 800 footnotes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Far from replacing one form of energy with another, the world has instead experienced energy symbioses: different forms of energy have been added, without replacing each other.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For example, Fressoz says, the use of wood has grown, thanks to oil (trucks can travel deeper into forests). Oil has grown, thanks to wooden barrels. Renewable energies have expanded, thanks to steel and cement produced by fossil fuels. Oil enables the world to transport more coal. All these forms of energy are intertwined: they grow symbiotically. They support each other, building upon rather than substituting for one another.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fressoz writes: \u201cAfter two centuries of \u2018energy transitions,\u2019 humanity has never burned so much oil and gas, so much coal and even so much wood. Every year, around two billion m3 of wood are cut for direct consumption, three times more than a century ago.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For example, coal is far from being an energy of the past. China burns 15 times more coal than England did at its peak, and more than France did in its entire history.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What does this mean? If we really want to succeed in the energy transition, says Fressoz, and move on from a modern economy based on the massive production of steel, cement and plastics, all of which are carbon-based, we need to better understand these powerful energy dynamics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He likens the current transition challenge to a sudden amputation. \u201cThe climate imperative does not call for a new energy transition, but for a voluntary and enormous energy self-amputation: to get rid, in four decades, of the share of the world\u2019s energy \u2013 more than three-quarters \u2013 derived from fossil fuels.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fressoz says we should stop deluding ourselves that in 2050 the world will have switched from one form of energy to another, based on the hope of a transition that, in fact, never happened in the past. To reduce CO2<\/sub> emissions, we need more comprehensive and rigorous climate policies, something that is admittedly less enchanting, but far more realistic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

TOP OF PAGE<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u00ab\u00a0Sans transition: Une nouvelle histoire de l\u2019\u00e9nergie<\/a>\u00ab\u00a0
par Jean-Baptiste Fressoz
Seuil, janvier 2024<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Revu par Yvan Cliche<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

En 2024, la discussion \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique en France a d\u00e9but\u00e9 sur une vive controverse : il y a de quoi. Sur la bande publicitaire du livre de l\u2019historien des sciences Jean-Baptiste Fressoz, il y a cette annonce, en lettres majuscules : LA TRANSITION \u00c9NERG\u00c9TIQUE N\u2019AURA PAS LIEU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sans surprise dans ce pays o\u00f9 le d\u00e9bat est un sport national, la parution de cet essai a enflamm\u00e9 les discussions et a valu \u00e0 son auteur la page frontispice de m\u00e9dias grand public, dont celle du magazine L\u2019OBS<\/em> (18\u201324 janvier 2024).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Avec cette banderole publicitaire en couverture du livre, l\u2019auteur a \u00e9t\u00e9 pris \u00e0 partie, dans plusieurs milieux.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c0 preuve, six intellectuels de renom se sont fendus d\u2019une lettre collective dans le journal Le Monde<\/em><\/a> (22 janvier 2024). Ils \u00e9crivent : \u00ab Ce d\u00e9clinisme \u00e9cologique est non seulement grandement infond\u00e9, mais \u00e9galement de nature \u00e0 plomber les ambitions dans la lutte contre le changement climatique. Affirmer que la transition est impossible, c\u2019est le meilleur moyen de ne jamais l\u2019engager. \u00bb<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alors, que dit dans son ouvrage M. Fressoz qui choque tant de monde?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

L\u2019industrialisation du 19e<\/sup> et du 20e<\/sup> si\u00e8cle n\u2019a donn\u00e9 lieu \u00e0 aucune transition, avance l\u2019auteur. On pr\u00e9sente souvent l\u2019histoire de l\u2019\u00e9nergie comme celle d\u2019une transition, de phases, du bois, vers le charbon, puis vers le p\u00e9trole, puis vers le gaz et, plus r\u00e9cemment, vers les \u00e9nergies renouvelables.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En somme, une histoire d\u00e9crite comme une s\u00e9rie de basculements, o\u00f9 une forme d\u2019\u00e9nergie en remplace une autre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Or, ce sch\u00e9ma \u00ab transitionniste \u00bb, selon l\u2019expression de Fressoz, est faux.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le nouveau ne fait pas disparaitre l\u2019ancien, avance le chercheur, qui s\u2019appuie sur de nombreuses donn\u00e9es et sur pr\u00e8s de 800 notes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Loin de remplacer une \u00e9nergie par une autre, le monde a plut\u00f4t connu des \u00ab symbioses \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques \u00bb : les diff\u00e9rentes formes d\u2019\u00e9nergie se sont accumul\u00e9es, sans se remplacer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chaque forme d\u2019\u00e9nergie aide l\u2019autre \u00e0 se d\u00e9velopper : la consommation de l\u2019un amplifie celle de l\u2019autre, dans une logique additive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Par exemple, dit le chercheur s\u2019appuyant sur moultes donn\u00e9es, le bois a cru gr\u00e2ce au p\u00e9trole (gr\u00e2ce aux camions pouvant p\u00e9n\u00e9trer plus profond\u00e9ment dans les for\u00eats, l\u2019industrie de l\u2019emballage) ; le p\u00e9trole a cru gr\u00e2ce aux tonneaux de bois ; les \u00e9nergies renouvelables ont pris de l\u2019expansion gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 l\u2019acier et au ciment produit par des fossiles ; le p\u00e9trole permet de transporter plus de charbon; bref, toutes ces \u00e9nergies sont \u00e9troitement imbriqu\u00e9es : elles croissent de mani\u00e8re symbiotique. Elles s\u2019\u00e9paulent, s\u2019additionnent plut\u00f4t que de se substituer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

L\u2019auteur \u00e9crit : \u00ab Apr\u00e8s deux si\u00e8cles de \u00ab transitions \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques \u00bb, l\u2019humanit\u00e9 n\u2019a autant br\u00fbl\u00e9 autant de p\u00e9trole et de gaz, autant de charbon et m\u00eame autant de bois. Chaque ann\u00e9e, environ deux milliards de m3 de bois sont abattus afin d\u2019\u00eatre directement consum\u00e9s, soit trois fois plus qu\u2019un si\u00e8cle plus t\u00f4t. \u00bb (p.14)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le charbon ? Loin d\u2019\u00eatre une \u00e9nergie du pass\u00e9e, la Chine br\u00fble quinze fois plus de charbon que l\u2019Angleterre \u00e0 son maximum historique et davantage que la France durant toute son histoire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Qu\u2019en conclure ? Si on veut r\u00e9ussir vraiment la transition \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique, dit Fressoz, d\u2019une \u00e9conomie moderne ax\u00e9e sur une production massive d\u2019acier, de ciment, de plastique, dont la production repose sur du carbone, il importe de bien mieux comprendre ces puissantes dynamiques \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Il compare ce d\u00e9fi de la transition tel que pr\u00f4n\u00e9 pr\u00e9sentement \u00e0 une amputation. \u00ab L\u2019imp\u00e9ratif climatique ne commande pas une nouvelle transition \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique, mais oblige \u00e0 op\u00e9rer, volontairement, une \u00e9norme autoamputation \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique : se d\u00e9faire en quatre d\u00e9cennies de la part de l\u2019\u00e9nergie mondiale \u2013 plus des trois quarts \u2013 issue des fossiles. \u00bb<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En gros, dit Fressoz, cessons de nous berner d\u2019illusions sur un monde qui, en 2050, aurait pleinement boug\u00e9 d\u2019une forme d\u2019\u00e9nergie \u00e0 une autre, sur l\u2019espoir d\u2019une transition qui n\u2019a, dans les faits, jamais exist\u00e9. Pour diminuer les \u00e9missions de CO2<\/sub>, il faut des politiques climatiques bien plus compl\u00e8tes et rigoureuses, certes moins enchanteresses, mais bien plus r\u00e9alistes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

TOP OF PAGE<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yvan Clich\u00e9<\/a> Book Review<\/a> Global<\/a> Economics<\/a> Environment & Energy<\/a> Energy Transition<\/a> Natural Resources<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Site web CGAI, 28 f\u00e9vrier 2024 BOOK REVIEW \u00ab\u00a0Sans transition: Une nouvelle histoire de l\u2019\u00e9nergie\u00ab\u00a0by Jean-Baptiste FressozSeuil, January 2024 Reviewed by Yvan Cliche 2024 offered a highly controversial start to the energy debate in France. On the front page of the new book by science historian Jean-Baptiste Fressoz, the following announcement appears in capital letters: THE […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[955],"class_list":["post-3450","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-critique_de_livres","tag-energie-transition-jean-baptiste-fressoz"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.yvancliche.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3450","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.yvancliche.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.yvancliche.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.yvancliche.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.yvancliche.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3450"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.yvancliche.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3450\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3451,"href":"https:\/\/www.yvancliche.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3450\/revisions\/3451"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.yvancliche.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3450"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.yvancliche.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3450"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.yvancliche.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3450"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}